Translated from Common Wealth, No.571, 28 April 2015, written by Xiao Fu-yuan
The Belt and Road, which involves 2 third population of the world in more than 60 countries, brings what kind of opportunity and risks?
Opportunity 1: Rising China endeavors to walk out.
Yenshen Zhang, the chief secretary of Academic Committee of China National Development, analyzes that it has been 35 years since China had Economic Reform and successfully conquer the first peak. Under Purchasing-power parity(PPP), China’ GDP already surpassed USA and became the largest economy.
In the following 35 years in the future, which Zhang called “new 35 years, China still have some peak to conquer, such as economic growth driven by intelligence industry, exceeding USA on Real GDP and Real GDP on per capita. And all these goals, Zhang said, “must be achieved with The Belt and Road.”
Opportunity 2: New trigger for the next economic engine.
Xueliang Ding, a professor of Hong Kong technological university who pays long attention on China’s development on politic and economy, pointed that China now reserves 4 trillion dollars for foreign-exchange and it can be all invested in foreign debt, which means China has to find other multiple investigation combination. To local governments, national and private enterprises, “the Belt and Road” indicates that central government will release more sources. 31 of 33 provinces, cities and areas urgently submit their project to catch on the train of the Band and Road.
Opportunity 3: China’s largest adjustment on international strategy in 40 years—an eastern Asian country to the central country in Asia.
“The Band and Road” is the largest adjustment that China has on its international strategy in these 40 years. Xue Li, the director of international strategy research office in CASS( Chinese Academy of Social Science), thinks that “The Band and Road” is a division that reveals the change of China’s concept to govern the “world” since 5000 years ago.
In the past, China thought that they attracted foreign countries to come by making their own prosperity. They didn’t concern whether other countries will come. Now, China not only walks out but also actively influences others. “President Xi has changed China’s self-identification, from an eastern-Asian country, then a strong
power in eastern Asia, to the central country in Asia.” Xue Li asserted.
Risk 1 : Imprudent investigation which leads to anticlimactic construction.
Many people doubt that, regarding China’s record of generosity to its construction, the elemental construction of “The Band and Road” might ends poorly.
Yizhou Wang, the deputy director of School of International Relationship, Peking University, straightforwardly says that when China walks out, low even non-effective investments flood out as well. Besides, with the instable police of near countries and frequent change of governments attribute re-negotiation on investigation and promises with new governments. Wang also suggests that China has to prevent from spending money too generously.
Risk 2 : Just an excuse for corruption?
Will “The Band and Road” again become the start of series corruption? The reporter of CW magazine arrived at Kashgar, the far west city of China, in mid-April. In Kashgar, when Zhang Qian, the ambassador of Han dynasty in ancient China, travelled toward the west, he and his team used to stay here. With expectation, the reporter came to the memorial park for Zhang Qian, which is 30 miles from the downtown. However, what the reporter saw was a Disney style gate and the memorial was locked. It seems like this memorial park has been dismal for a long time. “What is this? It sucks! They fool people by the sake of silk-road! ” said angrily Mr. Wang, our driver.
Risk 3 : Over expansion challenges other countries.
China develops construction in the countries which attend “the Band and Road”. Is it possibly a trap from an expanding empire?
Yin-Hong, the professor of International College, Renmin University of China, stated that, the biggest risk of “the Band and Road” is the struggle among China’s mercantilism, near countries’ nationalism and political power in the border areas. If China is arrogant, it will raise near large countries’ suspicion, such as USA, Japan, India and Russia and also raise the sensitive issue of sovereignty in small countries.
Risk 4 : Accelerating the unification by economy and struggle among large countries will strike Taiwan.
A chairman of a Taiwanese electricity company, who build factories in China, observed that China keep invading in Taiwan by economy. “The Band and Road” just is a new strategy to realize its goal.
“The struggle between China and other countries is like two plates. When these two
plates slide toward each other, the earthquake happens. Does Taiwan realize that it is between these two slides? Can you resist this earthquake? How to get the best strategy to survive? Taiwan needs to be more practical and brave and need more reasonable thinking.
This figure in business field raises many questions, but he also can’t give us a standard answer.
What’s Taiwan’s attitude should be toward “the Band and Road” ? Having expectation or being an outsider? What can be assured is, “the Band and Road” is a product that is strongly promoted to the world by Chinese government and enterprises.
Original: https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5067331
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